MEDIUM🎯 Contrarian ConvictionID-1003
Contrarian bet: $3000 against 5% consensus
|Mar 11|Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Severity Score
4.0–6.9
Detection Type
🎯
Contrarian Conviction
Trade Value
$3.0K
flagged amount
Wallet
0xc8c2...2d1c
Gruesome-Violation
MEDIUM Severity — Score 4.0–6.9
Moderate signals detected. Pattern may indicate informed trading.
Analysis
Wallet "Gruesome-Violation" placed $3000 BUY on "Yes" in "Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?" at avg 12.5¢ while market consensus is 5% against. Position is 0.3% of liquidity. Strong conviction against the crowd may indicate insider knowledge.
Alert Context
Market
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Volume
$63.1M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Wallet
“Gruesome-Violation”
0xc8c2e35222f6b28a794773c9cd15e61f5f882d1c
Detection Data
Side
BUY
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Outcome
Yes
Total Value
$3.0K
Trade Count
1
Avg Entry Price
0.13
Market Liquidity
$924.5K
Current Consensus
0.05
Pattern confidence
0.69
Position Vs Liquidity
$0
About This Detection Type
🎯
Contrarian Conviction
A large bet was placed against the market consensus with high conviction, potentially indicating private information.